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Thursday, January 12, 2006

Stock SplitsOne of the alluring myths that surrounds the stock

Stock Splits
One of the alluring myths that surrounds the stock market is the prospect that a certain stock may split, giving stock holders twice as many shares as before. What is poorly understood by the outsider, though, is that although the investor has more stock after a split, the value of each share is reduced. For example, if a corporation decides to split its stock 2-for-1, it issues one new share for each outstanding one. At the same time, the value of each share is cut in half. So the stock holders now hold twice as many shares but the total value is the same as before the split. A stock split is like receiving 2 five-dollar bills for a single ten-dollar bill. Same value - twice as much paper.

Why would a company do this?

A lot of it has to do with investor psychology. The price-per-share of a stock may be so high that the average investor feels it is out of his reach. A stock split reduces the price so that it may be more affordable to smaller investors. In reality, the small investor could have bought a smaller number of pre-split shares for the same price, but the appeal of buying a $20 stock as opposed to a $60 may be strong for some investors.

Stocks can be split by a number of ratios but the most common are 2-for-1, 3-for-2, and 3-for-1. Stocks can also be reverse-split - the company reduces the number of outstanding shares so that each stock holder has fewer shares than before. Reverse stock splits are less common, but can be used for several reasons: the price per share may be so low that it appears as a poor investment; the company may be attempting to stave off possible de-listment on the stock exchange; to push out minority stockholders; or as a way to go private.

Advantages

Lower prices per share can result in greater liquidity - stocks are easier to sell at lower prices and there is less of a bid/ask spread. This is especially true for stocks that are priced in the hundreds of dollars - small investors view them as out of their budget and the high bid/ask spreads (the difference between buying and selling prices) can put off bigger investors.

Other advantages have to do with investor psychology. A split is usually seen as a bullish indicator - stock prices are increasing and the company is doing well financially. There is usually a short-term rally around a stock which splits, but the market tends to normalize after a short period.

On the downside, a split may cause investors to expect more about how the company performs. If these expectations are not met investor confidence may be shaken and the result could be a drop in share prices.

The bottom line is a stock split does nothing to affect the worth or performance of a company. It may be nice to own more shares, but in the end your 2 five-dollar bills are still worth the same as your ten-dollar bill.



















Stock Trading SignalsBy following a trading system, market condition will

Stock Trading Signals
By following a trading system, market condition will at times be favourable to buy and at other times be favourable to sell. Clearly defined conditions give 'signals' that the educated investor can read and act on. Signals are not as crucial for the long term investor. For these people, market conditions and the value of particular companies can be watched on a daily basis. For day-traders, however, signals are crucial for acting quickly on stock market movements.

Investors who treat trading as a full-time job have the time to watch the market movements for signals. Oftentimes, however, signals can be automated and integrated into trading software. The investor can choose which signals to be alerted about and they will automatically appear on screen. Software signals are usually only available by subscription and some services charge hundreds of dollars a year for a complete package. This includes trading software and access to up-to-the-minute charts for the latest information about the stock market.

Investors who don't have the time to watch the market closely can subscribe to services which publish signals on a daily or hourly basis. These services may employ market analysts who may follow several indicators to arrive at a particular signal. More commonly, however, their systems are completely automated with signals being generated by software which examines market conditions. Some of these services have a better track record than others - it's a good idea to research them before signing up.

With any third-party signal provider it pays to know how the signals are being generated. Since there are such a large number of market indicators some of them may contradict each other. In addition, a particular indicator may send out conflicting signals depending on the time frame.

Market conditions also play an important part on the accuracy of indicators. During upswings in the market, for example, trend indicators will send out buy signals but longer-term oscillator indicators will view the market as being overbought and send out a sell signal. Generally speaking, trend indicators are most accurate during trend conditions and oscillators are best during times of transition. Both types of indicators are often in variance with the other.

To overcome these problems, try to find a signal generator that uses at least 3 market indicators for verification. Signals that are verified by 3 different indicators are strong and tend to be accurate. It is also important to look at signals from varying time frames. An upswing may simply be a short term correction and the market may afterwards continue its downward movement. Taking a broad view of market conditions allows you to see these variations more clearly.

Depending on the type of service you sign up for, signals can be delivered by email on a daily basis, available for viewing on a website, or be integrated into your trading software so that popups appear on your screen for particular signals that you are watching.

Companies which provide signals usually offer their services on a monthly basis. Some are quite expensive - as high as several hundred dollars a month. These are obviously aimed at the professional trader but other services are also available at more reasonable costs.

The value of these services has to be weighed by the individual investor. They can be a great time saver but they may also encourage laziness when it comes to analyzing the market. A knowledgeable trader should have the tools necessary to judge the effectiveness of a signal system and do some of the calculations himself to keep on top of the market.